Evaluating Projections

Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman and David A. Swanson
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Stanley K. Smith: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Jeff Tayman: University of California-San Diego, Economics Department
David A. Swanson: University of California Riverside, Department of Sociology

Chapter Chapter 12 in A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections, 2013, pp 301-322 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract How does one go about choosing the specific models, techniques, assumptions, and data sources to use when constructing a set of population projections? Is there a single “best” approach, or at least some that are better than others? In this chapter, we describe a number of criteria that can be used to evaluate population projections: provision of necessary detail, face validity, plausibility, costs of production, timeliness, ease of application and explanation, usefulness as an analytical tool, political acceptability, and forecast accuracy. We discuss the trade-offs that must be made when choosing projection methods and close with an assessment of how different methods stack up according to these evaluation criteria.

Keywords: Projection Method; Data User; Face Validity; Forecast Accuracy; Extrapolation Method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_12

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