Fertility

Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman and David A. Swanson
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Stanley K. Smith: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Jeff Tayman: University of California-San Diego, Economics Department
David A. Swanson: University of California Riverside, Department of Sociology

Chapter Chapter 5 in A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections, 2013, pp 77-101 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Fertility rates are determined by a combination of biological, social, psychological, economic, and cultural factors. They vary among individuals and populations and have changed considerably over time. The potential for substantial changes within a relatively short time makes it more difficult to construct accurate forecasts of fertility rates than mortality rates. In this chapter, we describe several fertility measures and discuss two different perspectives from which fertility behavior can be viewed, one focusing on births during a particular period of time (e.g., 1 year) and the other focusing on the cumulative fertility behavior of a particular cohort of women as they pass through their childbearing years. We describe a number of approaches to projecting fertility rates and discuss several sources of fertility data. Again, we pay special attention to the problems of making projections for small areas. We consider several alternative viewpoints regarding the likely path of future fertility rates and close with an assessment of the impact of fertility assumptions on population projections.

Keywords: Census Bureau; Total Fertility Rate; Fertility Behavior; Crude Birth Rate; Fertility Measure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-94-007-7551-0_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0_5

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