Hierarchical space-time modelling of epidemic dynamics: an application to measles outbreaks

Monica Chiogna and Carlo Gaetan
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Monica Chiogna: Universitá di Padova
Carlo Gaetan: Universitá di Padova

Statistical Methods & Applications, 2004, vol. 13, issue 1, No 5, 55-71

Abstract: Abstract. How infectious diseases spread in space and time is an important question that has received considerable theoretical attention. There are, however, few empirical studies to support theoretical approaches, because data is scarce. In this paper we propose to model the epidemic spread of measles in the London boroughs between 1960 and 1970 by an extension of the Kriged Kalman filter (Mardia et al. , 1998) to count data. Results show the flexibility of our approach in describing complex spatio-temporal dynamics.

Keywords: Count data; Kriged Kalman filter; Time-varying model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1007/s10260-004-0085-3

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