Estimating Water System Performance Under Climate Change: Influence of the Management Strategy Modeling

B. François (), B. Hingray, J. Creutin and F. Hendrickx

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2015, vol. 29, issue 13, 4903-4918

Abstract: Water resource management models, used to anticipate global change impact on water system performance, are classically a crude representation of real water systems. This paper analyzes how the representation of the management model may influence estimates of changes in performance for a multiobjective water reservoir in the French Alps. We consider three management strategy representations named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). Changes in system performance are estimated for a multimodel multimember ensemble of hydroclimatic simulations under the SRES-A1B emission scenario. They are much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the strategy representation. The simple clear-sighted management representation has a quite similar effect as the far-sighted one supposedly closer to real world. The short-sighted representation misestimates the system performance, especially when inter-annual inflow variability is high. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: Climate change; Water resource; Impact; Management strategy modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1097-5

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