Leak Prediction Model for Water Distribution Networks Created Using a Bayesian Network Learning Approach

Sou-Sen Leu and Quang-Nha Bui ()
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Sou-Sen Leu: National Taiwan University of Science and Technology
Quang-Nha Bui: National Taiwan University of Science and Technology

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2016, vol. 30, issue 8, No 9, 2719-2733

Abstract: Abstract Water leakage in water distribution systems (WDSs) can bring various negative economic, environmental, and safety effects. Therefore, predicting water leakage is one of the most crucial tasks in water resource management; however, it is also one of the most challenging ones. Previous leakage-related studies have only focused on detecting existing leaks. This paper presents a novel model using expert structural expectation–maximisation, for predicting water leakage in WDSs. The model can take into account the uncertainty of leakage-related factors and balance the contribution of monitoring data and prior information in a Bayesian learning process to maximise leakage prediction accuracy. Moreover, the proposed method can indicate the most crucial factors affecting water leakage. The results of this study could benefit water utilities by aiding them in establishing an effective leakage control plan to minimise the risk of water leakage. A case study is presented to demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Water distribution system; Leak prediction; Water leakage; Bayesian network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1316-8

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