Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Future Reliability of Water Supply Systems Served by Karst Aquifers

Nunziarita Palazzolo (), David J. Peres, Claudio Mineo, Stefania Passaretti, Anna Varriale and Antonino Cancelliere
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Nunziarita Palazzolo: University of Catania
David J. Peres: University of Catania
Claudio Mineo: ACEA Ato2
Stefania Passaretti: ACEA Ato2
Anna Varriale: ACEA Ato2
Antonino Cancelliere: University of Catania

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 13, No 27, 7283-7296

Abstract: Abstract This study proposes a modelling chain to assess climate change impacts on the future reliability of water supply systems fed by karst aquifers. EURO-CORDEX projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5and 8.5 are used to estimate spring discharge for 2021–2050 and 2041–2070. A regression model relates minimum annual spring discharge to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and reliability curves are derived after bias correction. The method is applied to four main karst aquifers in Central Italy that supply Rome and nearby areas. Specific results suggest a general decrease of reliability in the future scenarios. A general decline in aquifer reliability is projected, especially for 2041–2070. Aquifer Peschiera shows decreases of ~–11% (near-future) and − 8% (mid-future); Le Capore up to − 13%; Simbrivio − 6% to − 9%; Acqua Marcia ~–8%. The proposed methodology could be beneficial to water managers, as it offers support for planning adaptation measures that can reduce the impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Spring discharge; Reliability; SPEI; EURO-Cordex; RCMs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04297-1

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