Assessment of a Survivability Index for Drought Management in River Basins

Mert Can Gunacti () and Cem Polat Cetinkaya
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Mert Can Gunacti: Dokuz Eylul University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering
Cem Polat Cetinkaya: Dokuz Eylul University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering

Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), 2025, vol. 39, issue 15, No 3, 7919-7936

Abstract: Abstract The adverse effects of droughts have been a struggle for humanity from an early age and are still truly relevant problems. The efforts to understand, prevent, and mitigate the drought have motivated researchers to develop indicators, indices, and action plans for its management. The presented paper suggests a novel index entitled Survivability from Droughts Index (SDI) to evaluate quantitative and qualitative indicators that represent the WEF Nexus system as well as the pillars of sustainability: economy, social, institutional, and environmental aspects. The index consists of four main sub-indices, namely, perception, vulnerability, adaptability, and recoverability. Each of these defines the stages when engaging with drought. The SDI encapsulates the economic survivability capacity of the agricultural sector at the scale of a river basin, in the case of the Gediz River Basin (GBR), Türkiye. In GBR, the calculated SDI of a relatively wet year, 1982, is determined as 0.38. While in a relatively drier period, namely 1991–1992, the value drops to 0.31, in a recent year, 2023, the value increases to 0.48. The results of the paper both validate the historical droughts and indicate that survivability from droughts can be achieved by actions to improve the sub-indices of SDI. The overall framework of SDI demands various data and engagement with stakeholders, but the results represent a strong connection with the analyzed case study. The presented outcomes are most beneficial to the decision-makers to detect and prioritize their measurements, such as new investments, insurance policies in drought-vulnerable areas within the analyzed extent.

Keywords: Drought Index; Risk Assessment; WEF nexus; Hydrologic Modelling; Water Resources Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04321-4

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