Supply chain disruptions: firm-level evidence from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Lucas Zimmer ()
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Lucas Zimmer: INSEEC Grande Ecole

Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2025, vol. 161, issue 3, No 4, 965-995

Abstract: Abstract In this article, we employed firm-level data from France and a difference-in-differences approach to examine how input shortages propagate through global value chains, using the Tohoku earthquake as a natural experiment. Our findings reveal an 8% relative decrease in imports for French firms sourcing inputs from Japan, with more substantial declines for those highly reliant on Japanese suppliers. This is coupled with a 12.8% relative increase in imports from China for these exposed firms. Additionally, we discover that this transition is primarily driven by the top 5% of large firms and is prominently observed within the automotive sector. Regarding the transmission of input shortages through the global supply chain, we find that this shock only affects the exports of firms with the lowest levels of inventory, exhibiting variations across sectors and a time-dependent pattern. Surprisingly, these affected firms have not adjusted their inventory strategies from just-in-time practices to safety stocks.

Keywords: Tohoku earthquake; Global value chain; Resilience; Import reallocation; Inventories (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10290-024-00580-2

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