A cost-benefit assessment of covid-19 strategies. The case of Norway

Geir H. M. Bjertnæs (), Erling Holmøy and Roger Hammersland
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Roger Hammersland: Statistics Norway, http://www.ssb.no/en/forskning/ansatte

Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: This study evaluates the costs and benefits of alternative COVID-19 strategies for Norway, drawing on ex-post evidence from countries that pursued markedly different approaches. We argue that an elimination strategy—combining strict infection control with stringent border measures until a vaccine becomes available—delivers the greatest net benefits when a successful vaccine is expected within a short timeframe. Under vaccine uncertainty, both elimination and mitigation, the latter allowing gradual community spread, remain viable options. Norway adopted a suppression approach based on extensive TTIQ measures. Our findings suggest that this strategy was inferior compared to both elimination and mitigation. Finally, we compare ex-post assessments of costs and benefits with those emphasized in ex-ante evaluations, highlighting key discrepancies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Strategies; Cost-benefit analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H51 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2026-01
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