Apractical framework for behavioral microsimulation using external evidence

Zhiyang Jia, Snorre Skagseth (), Thor Thoresen and Trine E. Vattø ()
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Trine E. Vattø: Statistics Norway, http://www.ssb.no/en/forskning/ansatte

Discussion Papers from Statistics Norway, Research Department

Abstract: Whenstructural labor supply models are unavailable or impractical, the paper proposes a practical method for incorporating behavioral responses into static taxbenefit microsimulation models. Using elasticity estimates from the literature, the proposed external evidence procedure offers a flexible and transparent tool for incor porating behavioral effects into microsimulation. We distinguish between responses in income both at the in tensive and extensive margins. The framework is implemented within the Norwegian LOTTE microsimulation system and illustrated through two policy reforms: (i) a five percentage-point increase in the two top brackets of the labor income tax and (ii) the introduction of a work-related income deduction. Empirical results show that behavioral adjustments substantially offset mechanical revenue effects for high-income tax increases, while the work deduction generates positive participation responses but amplifies revenue losses due to phase-out ef fects.

Keywords: microsimulation; tax-benefit model; behavioral response; quasi-experimental evidence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 H24 H31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2026-02
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