 The climate niche of Homo SapiensWorking Paper Series from Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School Abstract: I propose the Dominicy-Hill-Worton estimator to estimate the current climate niche of Homo Sapiens and our croplands. I use this to extrapolate the degree of unprecedentedness of future climates. Worton’s peeled hull is a nonparametric, N-dimensional generalization of order statistics. Dominicy and colleagues show that Hill’s estimator of the tail-indx can be applied to any homogeneous function of multivariate order statistics. I apply the Dominicy-Hill estimator to transects through Worton’s peels. I find a thick tail for low temperaturesand a thin tail for high ones. That is, warming is more worrying than cooling.Similarly, wettening is more worrying than drying. Furthermore, temperature changes are more important than changes in precipitation. The results are not affected by income, population density, or time. I replace the Hill estimator by the QQ one and correct it for top-censoring. The qualitative results are unaffected. Keywords: tail-index; convex hull; climate (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sus:susewp:0223 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School Contact information at EDIRC. |
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