The predictive ability of share-based compensation expense

Alaa Alhaj-Ismail and Sami Adwan

Accounting and Business Research, 2025, vol. 55, issue 4, 445-478

Abstract: This paper examines the ability of share-based compensation expense (SBCE) to predict future firm performance relative to other employee compensation expenses. It also examines whether cash settled-based compensation expense has greater predictive ability for future performance than equity settled expense. Using a sample of 443 firms listed in the UK between 2005 and 2018, we find that the predictive ability of SBCE is statistically significantly higher than that of other employee compensation expenses. Furthermore, the results show that the predictive ability of SBCE classified as cash settled is statistically significantly higher than that of equity settled SBCE. Overall, our findings suggest that recognised SBCE, particularly cash settled SBCE (i.e. fair value-adjusted expense), is useful for predicting future firm performance.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/00014788.2024.2346836

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