Consumption and uncertainty: a panel analysis in Italian Regions

Mario Menegatti

Applied Economics Letters, 2007, vol. 14, issue 1, 39-42

Abstract: This work tests precautionary saving theory in Italian regions, examining the relationship between consumption growth and income uncertainty in a panel of five-year averages in the period 1981 to 2000. The analysis used two different measures for income uncertainty. The first is a naive measure given by the variance of GDP growth rates while the second is a more sophisticated one obtained by computing the conditional variance by means of the expectation of GDP growth. This expectation is obtained by using the best ARMA process for each region. The results obtained confirm the importance of the precautionary saving motive in consumption decisions.

Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425600

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