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Risk reduction in two-pillar mandatory pension system under regulatory constraints: simulation-based evidence from Poland

Radosław Kurach, Paweł Kuśmierczyk and Daniel Papla

Applied Economics Letters, 2021, vol. 28, issue 3, 191-195

Abstract: The regulatory framework of the Polish pension system is far-removed from the optimal lifecycle portfolio approach, which recommends a time-varying asset mix to minimize portfolio risk. Nevertheless, a question emerges on how large diversification gains can grow under the existing rules. This study accounts for the current restrictions and estimates risk-reduction opportunities under the two-pillar pension system. We compare the outcomes with our previous results for optimal portfolio allocation and, as in the previous study, use a Monte Carlo approach with a copula function to simulate the distribution of replacement rates for the Polish pension system. We conclude that the regulations hinder, to a significant extent, the opportunity to minimize shortfall risks, an unsatisfactory outcome for Polish pensioners.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1740154

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