Policy-induced fertility decline and the unmet demand for old-age social support in rural China

Juerong Huang, Qiran Zhao, Juan Liu and Qihui Chen ()

Applied Economics Letters, 2025, vol. 32, issue 12, 1697-1703

Abstract: This paper, exploiting exogenous variation in older females’ exposure to China’s family planning policies enacted in the early 1970s, estimates the effect of reduced fertility on the unmet demand for social old-age care in China. Based on a dataset of older adults recently collected from two provinces, instrumental-variable estimation reveals that having more children reduces aged parents’ unmet demand for various community-provided services, including adult daycare centres, community nursing, and onsite visits. Moreover, these reduced demands were driven by a significant increase in the reliance on one’s children (but not one’s spouse) for old-age support.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2024.2313552

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