Long memory and mean reversion in real exchange rates in Latin America

Luis Gil-Alana and Laura Sauci

Applied Economics, 2018, vol. 50, issue 29, 3148-3155

Abstract: This article examines the long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis for 12 Latin American Real Effective Exchange Rates (REERs) using fractional integration techniques. The empirical results, applying parametric approaches, provide evidence of mean reversion in the REERs in the cases of Nicaragua, Belize, Costa Rica, Guyana and Paraguay and lack of it for the remaining seven countries. Employing semiparametric methods, the evidence of mean reversion covers the following countries: Belize, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador and Mexico. Thus, only for Belize and Guyana do we obtain consistent evidence of mean reversion in the real exchange rates. At the other extreme, lack of mean reversion, and thus, lack of PPP, is obtained with both methods in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela. For the remaining six countries, the results are ambiguous. The results for the PPP theory in Belize and Guyana may show the importance of promoting policies based on exchange rate flexibility and economic liberalization to reach a long-run stability scenario that leads to greater international competitiveness and lower external vulnerability.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1418076

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