Information in stock prices: the case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

Benjamin Blau (), Todd Griffith and Ryan J. Whitby

Applied Economics, 2019, vol. 51, issue 40, 4385-4396

Abstract: On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1591608

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