Threat/risk assessment tool to assess vulnerability of Polish cities to Russian attacks

Zbigniew Galar and Adam Sadowski

Defense & Security Analysis, 2023, vol. 39, issue 1, 111-117

Abstract: Polish border guards can’t stop a few dozen fast-wheeled APCs and IFVs. If such a force would cross through any road at the eastern border of Poland, it would pass almost intact. Afterward, it would be an easy target, but only before it could hide in a dense urban area. Is eastern Poland prepared for such a surprise attack of under a hundred vehicles that could arrive in many city centres within an hour after the border crossing? If a Russian force arrives at even a medium-sized city centre, they could occupy and hold such a position for weeks and use local civilians as human shields. They could force political negotiations holding also precious city infrastructure hostage. Lack of fast and decisive decision-making which is highly likely (because any bombardment will mean a loss of life of civilians) will only make any attempt to regain the city more difficult.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2023.2163997

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