The costly gamble: how Russia's invasion of Ukraine weakened its role as a balancing power

Zdeněk Kříž

Defense & Security Analysis, 2023, vol. 39, issue 3, 387-406

Abstract: Russia is not a superpower, and it is not a conventional great power either. Russia is a balancing great power (balancer), which since 2007 has been purposefully offsetting western influence in the international system and attempting to resist Western (American) hegemony. The paper develops the argument that the failed aggression against Ukraine has very significantly limited Russia’s ability to use available balancing techniques. Ukraine has clearly opted for a Western orientation because Russia has entirely lost its appeal. Russian positions in Central Asia and the Caucasus are weakened. In both areas, Russia must confront the growing activities of the EU, the US, China, and Turkey. Russia’s ability to manage an equilibrium between China and India in Asia is diminishing as it can no longer export sophisticated weapons. Russia’s conventional military capabilities have been significantly reduced. All in all, Russia’s relative position among the other great powers has deteriorated significantly.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2023.2202035

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