The Fall Crisis of 2022: why did Russia not use nuclear arms?

Ulrich Kühn

Defense & Security Analysis, 2025, vol. 41, issue 2, 280-300

Abstract: Back in the fall of 2022, parts of the US administration assessed a heightened risk of Russian nuclear use in the Ukraine War. Despite this assessment, nuclear weapons were not used. Why did Russia not use nuclear weapons during the Fall Crisis of 2022? This essay offers a systematic review of the most influential rationalist, normative, and institutionalist theories of non-use and discusses whether they can explain the practices seen throughout 2022 in the war. It concludes that in lieu of verifiable evidence, currently all major theories of non-use can to some degree explain these practices, with theories centred on nuclear deterrence and an international taboo norm sticking out. Using the case study at hand, a multicausal model of nuclear non-use, with an emphasis on nuclear use prevention, will be presented as a possible blueprint for dealing with future nuclear crises.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14751798.2024.2442794 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:cdanxx:v:41:y:2025:i:2:p:280-300

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CDAN20

DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2024.2442794

Access Statistics for this article

Defense & Security Analysis is currently edited by Martin Edmonds

More articles in Defense & Security Analysis from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().