Climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation over the Caspian Sea

S. Mahya Hoseini, Mohsen Soltanpour and Mohammad R. Zolfaghari

International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2025, vol. 41, issue 1, 31-56

Abstract: The projected changes in precipitation and air temperature over the Caspian Sea (CS) are studied using 13 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) and downscaling/bias-correction techniques are applied to reduce the uncertainties and correct the biases in CMIP6 outputs. Future projections indicate a warmer climate (0.4–3°C) over the CS in the 21st century, with precipitation changes up to 2.3% decrease or 20% increase based on scenarios. These changes pose significant environmental challenges that require mitigation and adoption strategies for sustainable development.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2024.2313050

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