Modelling extreme precipitation projections under the effects of climate change: case study of the Caspian Sea

Sogol Moradian, Salem Gharbia, Ali Torabi Haghighi and Indiana A. Olbert

International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2025, vol. 41, issue 1, 57-77

Abstract: Climate change is expected to alter climate extremes. This paper evaluates future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Caspian Sea, where the changes are noticeable due to its geographical location and remoteness from the ocean. Using bias-corrected data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and extreme value analysis, this study shows increased precipitation from 18.48 mm/month in 1980–2014 to 19.50–19.82 mm/month in 2015–2100, depending on the climate scenario. Additionally, extreme events in the future are projected to increase over the sea due to climatic changes, depicting the emergence of droughts/floods that could occur more frequently in the region.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2024.2400505

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