Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy prices: evidence from OECD countries

Tie-Ying Liu and Chien-Chiang Lee

Policy Studies, 2025, vol. 46, issue 3, 460-492

Abstract: This study applies the PSM-DID approach to investigate whether the energy price has been impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war among OECD countries during 1999–2022. Compared with previous studies, we obtain robust and heterogeneous results by considering endogeneity from the perspective of quantitative policy assessment. It concludes the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly raised energy prices, leading to a 9% increase in energy prices in OECD countries. The heterogeneity results show that the Russia-Ukraine war impacted the energy prices of EU and NATO members but not those of non-EU and non-NATO countries. Additionally, only the energy prices in Southern and Western European countries have been significantly increased by the Russia-Ukraine war, in which Southern Europe has been the most affected, rising by 22%. These findings have great practical significance for analyzing the degree of influence of war on fluctuations in energy prices and geopolitical risks in regions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/01442872.2024.2384431

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