Population decline and data discrepancies: evaluating ACS estimates and comprehensive plan projections for a subset of U.S. shrinking cities

Victoria Morckel

Planning Practice & Research, 2025, vol. 40, issue 4, 954-964

Abstract: Accurate population estimates and projections are crucial for urban planning, especially in shrinking cities. This paper evaluates discrepancies between the 2020 decennial census and the 2019 1-year and 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS). The results suggest that the ACS likely overestimates population figures in rapidly shrinking cities. Additionally, an analysis of comprehensive plans shows that cities experiencing long-term shrinkage depend on ACS data to describe trends, but population projections are often inaccurate or neglected. These insights highlight the need for increased awareness of ACS limitations to prevent misguided planning decisions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/02697459.2025.2519365

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