When do civilians resist military coup attempts?

Ömer Aslan and Mehmet Özkan

Third World Quarterly, 2023, vol. 44, issue 5, 892-910

Abstract: When do ordinary civilians mobilise to resist military coup attempts? Existing literature based largely on single case studies puts forward three variables: political culture, popular support for the government, and material (economic) dependency between the government and its supporters. Finding these explanations insufficient, we first utilise existing military coup data sets and identify the universe of cases of civilian resistance (19) to military coups. Taking our next cue from social movement and mobilisation studies, we focus on mobilisation networks and leadership as possible causal conditions. We also follow the approach of searching for the causes-of-effects, working backward from the outcome of interest (civilian resistance) to look for additional causal conditions. A comparative analysis of eight positive (civilian resistance) cases shows that collective yearning for change, transformative leadership, resistance by the leadership and robust mobilisation power in the state capital and largest cities may together carry more explanatory power. Validation of evidence provided by six negative (no civilian resistance) cases indicates that while a collective desire for change and transformative leadership may set the stage for resistance, it is ‘mobilisation power’ and ‘leadership resistance’ that exert more impact on the causal process of emergence of civilian resistance to military coups d’état.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/01436597.2022.2163232

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