AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict

Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler ()

Defence and Peace Economics, 2002, vol. 13, issue 6, 435-450

Abstract: We analyze theoretically and empirically the effects of economic policy and the receipt of foreign aid on the risk of civil war. We find that aid and policy do not have direct effects upon conflict risk. However, both directly affect the growth rate and the extent of dependence upon primary commodity exports, and these in turn affect the risk of conflict. Simulating the effect of a package of policy reform and increased aid on the average aid recipient country, we find that after five years the risk of conflict is reduced by nearly 30%.

Keywords: Civil Wars; Foreign Aid; Economic Growth; Primary Commodity Exports; Zaire; Policy Reform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1080/10242690214335

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