INTER-REGIONAL TRADE FLOW ESTIMATION THROUGH NON-SURVEY MODELS: AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT

Ana L.M. Sargento, Pedro Nogueira Ramos and Geoffrey Hewings

Economic Systems Research, 2012, vol. 24, issue 2, 173-193

Abstract: Inter-regional trade estimation has been pointed out as a crucial problem when constructing a multiregional input--output system. Knowledge of inter-regional trade flows, at least of the pooled volume of exports and imports by commodity, is critical in accounting for important spillover and feedback effects deriving from inter-regional linkages. However, in most countries, there are no completely reliable survey-based statistics on inter-regional trade. Thus, this paper intends to evaluate the reasonability of using indirect inter-regional trade estimates, comparing different estimating methods and assessing the sensitivity of the model results. Based on our empirical comparisons we conclude that input--output models are not greatly affected by the insertion of different trade values. Thus, our results support the use of indirect estimates for inter-regional trade, whenever survey-based data are unavailable.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2011.574609

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