Coupling an integrated assessment model with an input–output database

Nicolas Dai, Qiyu Liu, Mengyu Li, Arunima Malik and Manfred Lenzen

Economic Systems Research, 2024, vol. 36, issue 4, 527-544

Abstract: MESSAGE is an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) useful for developing anthropogenic climate change scenarios and the evaluation of long-term energy policies. MESSAGE is constrained by its internal scenario generator, which project energy commodity demand inputs based only on population and GDP growth assumptions; the lack of sectoral and supply-chain details prevents modeling impacts from develpoments in non-energy sectors. Here we link MESSAGEix-Australia, a national-level MESSAGE IAM variant, to an input-output scenario builder to generate future energy commodity demands. The coupled IO_IAM framework then captures indirect energy implications of various socio-economic scenarios. Two scenarios were used to demonstrate this capability: first on the policy-based decarbonisation pathways for Australia, and second on the adoption of self-healing roads. This study showcases that a link between IO and IAM methods provides an opportunity for bringing together the strengths of the two approaches for assessing a wide range of sustainability questions.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2024.2387023

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