The Disengagement Puzzle: An Examination of the Calculus to Exit a Rebellion

John Riley and Mary Kate Schneider

Terrorism and Political Violence, 2022, vol. 34, issue 8, 1679-1697

Abstract: Why do rebels leave rebellions? Although much scholarly attention has been devoted to understanding why individuals join rebellions, relatively little is known about why they leave. This paper seeks to fill this deficit by exploring the decision-making process that rebels undertake when determining whether to stay or leave. Based on interview data collected from ten active rebels and four former rebels all engaged (or previously engaged) in conflicts in East Africa, we find that the reason why rebels joined the group influences their decision to leave or stay. Rebels who joined due to grievances are far less likely to escape opportunistically, while rebels who joined due to “greed” display a higher sensitivity to the hardships of rebel life and the pull of alternative options. Understanding why a person joins a rebellion helps predict the factors that will drive them to leave.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2020.1830068

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