To fight or not to fight: The decision to settle the Croat‐Serb conflict

Francine Friedman

International Interactions, 1996, vol. 23, issue 1, 55-78

Abstract: The contemporary Croat‐Serb conflict is the result of long‐standing misconceptions, competing historical claims, and political cynicism. Nevertheless, it was possible to anticipate the basic outlines of the outcome of this conflict even before the negotiations had begun and even though the driving force of the conflict appeared to have been the allegedly irrational force of nationalism. Expected utility analysis applied to expert evaluations of important domestic and external actors was used effectively to detail the likely development of the settlement among the Serbs, Croats, and other ethnic groups within the former Yugoslav state. The findings not only indicated in December 1991 that the Serbs and Croats would in the end settle for Croatian independence with some Croatian (territorial) concessions to Serbia but also that the Bosnian Muslims were the next likely target for extremist Serbian forces.

Date: 1996
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DOI: 10.1080/03050629708434901

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