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Evolving Russian civil‐military relations: A rational actor analysis

John H. P. Williams and Mark J. Webber

International Interactions, 1997, vol. 24, issue 2, 115-150

Abstract: Recent analyses agree that Russia is experiencing considerable difficulty adapting to its new circumstances, but differ as to where these problems will lead. Some authors expect that the current regime will continue muddling through, while others fear that what remains of the former Soviet defense community could try to intervene against weaker pro‐democratic actors. We use a rational actor model to assess the interplay of policy preference, strength and perceptions of risk among the major players in Russian politics. The results support the contention of those who argue that the current regime will continue muddling through. Though politically significant, potential challengers to the regime cannot concentrate enough support to move the regime from the path of political and military reform.

Date: 1997
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DOI: 10.1080/03050629808434923

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