Probabilistic forecasting of political events

Roberto Ley‐Borrás

International Interactions, 1997, vol. 24, issue 3, 255-285

Abstract: Political conflicts are modeled as Markovian processes where the states are the possible outcomes and the forecast is the steady‐state probability of each outcome. The input variables are the power of the actors, the salience of the issue to the actors and the desirability of each possible outcome to the actors. The modeling flexibility of the proposed method is verified by its application to twenty‐eight actual conflicts that include economic and political issues resolved on national and international settings. The predictive capability of the method is established by close agreement between probability intervals of the forecasts and the actual outcomes.

Date: 1997
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DOI: 10.1080/03050629808434931

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