Regime change and system stability: Simulating complex anarchical environments over the internet

Douglas A. Van Belle

International Interactions, 2000, vol. 26, issue 2, 205-228

Abstract: This article uses data from a seven‐player simulation of a complex anarchical environment to analyze hypotheses on domestic political regime changes and system stability. By conducting the simulation over the Internet, a tremendous number of runs through the simulation can be completed in a relatively short time, thereby generating sufficient data for the statistical analyses. The analyses demonstrate that even in a research simulation designed to emphasize and isolate systemic factors, regime changes increase the threats to the survival of actors and significantly reduce the probability that the system will remain stable. This suggests that there may be a systemic mechanism in addition to the linkage politics mechanism described in the democratization and war literature.

Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.1080/03050620008434966

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