Managing Intrastate Low-Intensity Armed Conflict 1993--2004: A New Dataset

Erik Melander, Frida Möller and Magnus Öberg

International Interactions, 2009, vol. 35, issue 1, 58-85

Abstract: This article presents a new event dataset covering third-party measures in intrastate low-intensity conflict dyads for the period 1993--2004, Managing Low-Intensity Intrastate Conflict (MILC). The rationale behind MILC is to enable the systematic study of third-party conflict management activities that might contribute to preventing these minor conflicts from escalating to the level of full-scale war. Intrastate armed conflict dyads are followed, and third-party activities mapped, until the dyad escalates to full-scale war or the dyad becomes inactive. The dataset contains information on the intermediaries as well as the different types of measures undertaken. The data include measures such as different types of talks, good offices, arbitration, fact-finding missions, permanent observation missions, and peacekeeping. In addition, a wealth of novel descriptive findings is presented, such as the distribution of third-party efforts over regions as well as over individual conflict dyads. We notice that the Middle East attracts the most third-party involvement relative to the number of active conflict dyads. Asia, in contrast, is relatively neglected given the high number of conflicts on the continent. The trend in third-party activity over time is presented, and we show that the number of third-party efforts globally is relatively constant over the period of study with the exception of a dramatic spike in activity related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the years 2000--2002. The distribution of different types of measures and third parties is also presented. The most active third parties include several major powers and intergovernmental organizations, but also a few middle powers.

Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1080/03050620902743887

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