Globalization and Population: International Trade and the Demographic Transition

John A. Doces

International Interactions, 2011, vol. 37, issue 2, 127-146

Abstract: I study the effect of international trade on birth rates across a large number of countries. A supply-demand model of the birth rate explains that a rise in international trade reduces the demand for children and encourages an earlier onset of the mortality revolution. These two effects caused by the rise of international trade lead to a lower birth rate. A time-series cross-section empirical analysis for a large sample of developed and developing countries exhibits that international trade has a statistically significant and inverse effect on the birth rate. The policy implications relating to trade, economic growth, and conflict are discussed in the conclusion.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2011.568838

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