Shocks and Turbulence: Globalization and the Occurrence of Civil War

Mark David Nieman

International Interactions, 2011, vol. 37, issue 3, 263-292

Abstract: Several scholars argue that systemic global trends are pulling individuals not only upward toward the global level, but also downward to the local level; the result is a potential loss of authority for the state (Ferguson and Mansbach 2004; Rosenau 1990). Their theory of “fragmegration” can provide a causal mechanism for why longstanding grievances may erupt into civil war at a particular time. While increased global exposure does provide both states and individual citizens with tremendous benefits, sudden “shocks” of globalization can overwhelm a state's capacity to offset the negative impacts of globalization, thus weakening a state's capacity to deal with rival polities for the allegiance of its citizens. The present study conducts a cross-sectional logistic regression with discrete duration analysis to test the impact of globalization shocks on the onset of civil wars between the years 1970--1999. The results demonstrate that increasingly dramatic changes in the level of global integration are associated with an increased risk of civil war onset.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2011.594756

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