Following an Experienced Shepherd: How a Leader’s Tenure Affects the Outcome of International Crises

Jacob Ausderan

International Interactions, 2015, vol. 41, issue 1, 26-45

Abstract: Previous research has shown that a leader’s preconflict tenure affects the likelihood of conflict occurrence, while conflict outcomes affect a leader’s postconflict tenure. I argue that a leader’s preconflict tenure should affect not only conflict occurrence but conflict outcomes as well, specifically by increasing a leader’s professional competence and increasing the likelihood that the state will emerge victorious from international crises. This effect should weaken as the constraints upon leaders’ behaviors increase and their competence becomes less important for policy outcomes. Using a bivariate probit model with selection and a dyadic data set on international crises experienced by 195 countries between 1950 and 2000, I find moderate-to-strong support for the hypotheses.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2015.964401

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