Displacement Into New York City’s Shelter System: Exploring the Roles of Neighborhood-Level Housing Dynamics

Valerie E. Stahl, Adèle Cassola and Madison Swayne

Housing Policy Debate, 2025, vol. 35, issue 4, 686-711

Abstract: This study examines the associations between neighborhood-level housing dynamics and displacement rates into the homeless shelter system in New York City (NYC). We analyze a novel dataset obtained from NYC’s Department of Homeless Services that tracks the neighborhood of origin for shelter entrants. Using descriptive methods, mapping, and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, we examine the relationships between community characteristics and rates of shelter entry, shedding light on an under-studied level of analysis in homelessness research—neighborhoods. This article proposes two potential mechanisms that could contribute to shelter entry at the neighborhood level beyond the aggregation of individual risk: an increased risk of displacement and limited housing choices for displaced households. We find that neighborhood-level eviction rates, poverty rates, and proportions of African American/Black residents are positively associated with rates of displacement into the shelter system, with evictions being the strongest predictor of shelter entry. The study provides the first comprehensive examination of neighborhood-level correlates of shelter entry in NYC in nearly 30 years and fills a gap in the very small empirical literature examining the relationship between housing insecurity indicators and homelessness at the neighborhood level. Findings support policy recommendations that address homelessness at the neighborhood level and curb eviction and displacement to reduce instances of shelter entry.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2024.2426453

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