All in: a replication of the better than average effect in poker players and dealers

Adriel Boals, Zoe South, Haley Wewers and Soha Sanjrani

International Gambling Studies, 2025, vol. 25, issue 2, 228-242

Abstract: Poker players regularly risk large amounts of money, in part based on their perceived skill level. However, only about 5–15% of poker players are long-term winning players. To test for a possible gap between poker players’ perceived and actual skill levels, we examined the better-than-average effect (BTAE) in a sample of poker players (Study 1) and poker dealers (Study 2). The BTAE is a phenomenon in which most people consider themselves above average on a variety of important skills and traits. In Study 1, we assessed 248 poker players’ perceived and actual skill levels. We found that 88% of participants rated their skill level as above average. We further found a Dunning-Kruger effect using traditional analyses, but failed to find evidence of this effect using recently recommended and more rigorous statistical analyses. In Study 2, we again replicated the BTAE, this time in a sample of 37 poker dealers, as 95% of poker dealers rated their dealing skill level as above average. This is the first time the BTAE has been examined in the poker arena. We conclude that the BTAE aids poker players in the arena of competition, as it instills necessary confidence, regardless of their actual skill level.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/14459795.2025.2465334

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International Gambling Studies is currently edited by Katie Donnelly, David Marshall, Bronwyn Stuart, Alex Blaszczynski and Jan McMillen

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