Do Cash-Transfer Programs Protect from Poverty in the Case of Aggregate Shocks? A Study on Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines

Tobias Pfutze

Journal of Development Studies, 2026, vol. 62, issue 6, 1000-1022

Abstract: Cash transfer programs are regarded as providing effective protection against poverty and household-specific negative income shocks. Relatively little research has been done on their performance in situations of aggregate negative shocks. This paper assesses the performance of the Philippine 4P program in the aftermath of Typhoon Yolanda in 2013. Using propensity score matching and triple difference techniques, it finds that the program effectively protected households affected by the storm from falling into extreme poverty. It had the largest effect on non-food consumption.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2025.2577322

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