One-Minute Earthquake, Years of Patience: Evidence from Mexico on the Effect of Earthquake Exposure on Time Preference

Pierre-Guillaume Méon, Robin Rampaer and David Raymaekers

Journal of Development Studies, 2026, vol. 62, issue 8, 1320-1336

Abstract: Using a survey of nearly 20,000 Mexican residents matched with various earthquakes, we observe evidence that people affected by an earthquake report a lower discount rate, implying a greater level of patience. The effect is stronger for more intense earthquakes and robust to controlling for a series of socioeconomic variables, locality, and event fixed effects. The effect is not driven by changes in risk aversion, expected future income streams, or life expectancy, nor is it impacted by people moving in or out of affected localities. People react similarly regardless of their age at the time of the earthquake, in line with the life-long openness hypothesis. Estimates suggest that the effect of more intense earthquakes diminishes slowly, persisting over decades. This effect is independent of gender but varies with education and subjective well-being. Respondents who have experienced an earthquake adjust their savings and health-related behaviours in ways consistent with a decrease in their discount rate.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2025.2607415

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