Does dollar-pegging matter? A closer look at US trade deficits with China and Germany

Chengjun Shi and Jing Li

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2017, vol. 26, issue 4, 451-472

Abstract: China and Germany are comparable in terms of having persistent trade surplus with the USA, but they differ in how their currencies are valued. By invoking the China–Germany comparison, this paper finds that there is weak, if any, statistical association between the US trade deficit and the exchange rate. This finding is robust to long-run vs. short-run horizon, without vs. with an instrumental variable, and in-sample fitting vs. out-of-sample forecasting. This paper predicts that the US trade deficits with China and Germany will continue to rise in the presence of a recovery in the US economy.

Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09638199.2016.1264988 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:26:y:2017:i:4:p:451-472

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RJTE20

DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2016.1264988

Access Statistics for this article

The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development is currently edited by Pasquale Sgro, David E.A. Giles and Charles van Marrewijk

More articles in The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().