An Adaptive Kernel-Based Structural Change Test for Copulas

Xiaohui Lu and Yahong Zhou

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2025, vol. 43, issue 3, 696-709

Abstract: This article proposes a structural change test for copula models based on the kernel smoothing method. The proposed approach enables adaptable estimation of the dynamic marginal distributions, either parametrically or semi-parametrically. The test statistic is formulated via the weighted quadratic distance between the local smoothing copula and the empirical copula function, using pseudo-observations of marginal distributions. The test statistic is pivotal with an asymptotic standard Normal distribution, irrespective of the marginal distributions, parameters, and estimations, and is consistent against a wide range of smoothly transitioning structural changes as well as abrupt structural breaks for copula models. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test performs well in finite samples and outperforms existing tests in the case of periodic changes.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2024.2422980

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