A study of inflation persistence in Kazakhstan: what has changed?

Alisher Tolepbergen

Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 2024, vol. 17, issue 3, 465-484

Abstract: The paper analyzes the persistence properties of the monthly inflation and its components in Kazakhstan using a fractionally integrated approach. The results suggest the presence of long memory behaviour in the inflation series. The general inflation, food inflation, and non-food inflation experienced a break in late 2015 when the National Bank of Kazakhstan announced a shift in the monetary policy regime. Non-food inflation is fractionally cointegrated with the nominal depreciation rate. The estimates of the Bayesian DSGE model reveal shifts in the sources of inflation persistence. The evidence for the effect of the policy change on inflation persistence and its sources is mixed. Finally, the estimation of the persistence parameter is sensitive to the choice of data frequency.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2022.2077055

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