The term structure of ocean freight rates

Albert W. Veenstra

Maritime Policy & Management, 1999, vol. 26, issue 3, 279-293

Abstract: This paper contains an empirical investigation of the relation between spot and period freight rates for the ocean dry bulk shipping market. This relation is commonly referred to as a term structure. This paper hypothesizes a present value model, expressing the period rate as expectations of future spot rates, to represent this relation. The present value model is estimated using a vector autoregressive modelling approach. Although formal tests on the vector autoregressive models reject a restriction imposed by the present value relation, alternative, informal, tests proposed in financial markets research show that there is, in fact, considerable evidence that the present value model provides a valid description of the relation between spot and period freight rates. The results in this paper, therefore, support the existence of a term structure in ocean freight rates.

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1080/030888399286899

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