Evaluation of navigation capacity in the Northeast Arctic passage: evidence from multiple factors

Lang Xu, Jiacong Huang, Shanshan Fu and Jihong Chen

Maritime Policy & Management, 2025, vol. 52, issue 3, 497-513

Abstract: Arctic ice is melting away as a result of global warming, making possible the further commercial exploitations of the Arctic shipping routes, both to satisfy the shipping demand and to avoid the growing Somali piracy. In this research, the hierarchical regression is utilized to examine the impact of natural and economic factors on the Northeast Arctic Route (NER) through sample data on cargo volume from 2011 to 2021. From the results, the natural factors related to sea ice have a negative impact on the navigability of the NER, whereas economic factors and sea ice melting periods have a positive impact. Additionally, all variables are standardized to compare their respective significances on the cargo volume. Furthermore, Russian energy exports have a greater impact on shipping capacity than other variables, followed by the number of ship transits. Finally, the interrupted time-series analysis is introduced to find that the project of Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) has a positive effect on the NER, which could not offset the side effect of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2024.2376126

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