An examination of the pirate cycle theory: insights from modern piracy dynamics

Nusret Soğancilar and Ahmed Yusuf Sarihan

Maritime Policy & Management, 2025, vol. 52, issue 7, 1112-1131

Abstract: In the 21st century, the understanding of piracy has remained under-theorized despite significant academic studies. This article examines contemporary maritime piracy through the theoretical framework of the Piracy Cycle Theory. The study examines the piracy incidents reported to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) in 2023 through content analysis. The findings support the concepts of ‘initial formation’ and ‘transitional consolidation’ in the pirate cycle theory. Specifically, it reveals that piracy in Africa and America is currently in the transitional consolidation stage, while Asia is still experiencing the initial formation stage. Notably, no assaults were recorded at the ‘potential state-like establishment’ stage in the analysis. The findings largely support the pirate cycle theory. However, it is important to consider alternative explanations for the newly observed trends. It has also been revealed that shipping companies must take region-specific precautions to minimize the adverse effects of piracy and tailor their strategies to the risks present in different areas.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2025.2464838

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