Modeling Acute Rheumatic Fever

Mark McGuinness, Nokuthaba Sibanda and Melissa Welsh

Mathematical Population Studies, 2015, vol. 22, issue 4, 187-208

Abstract: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a major cause of heart disease, rare in developed countries, but of concern in New Zealand, where a unique feature is the prevalence of ARF among Maori and Pacific Island peoples. The incidence and prevalence of ARF in a population are modeled for the New Zealand case, where risks of contracting Group A Streptococcus or developing ARF are allowed to vary according to ethnicity, age, and ARF history. The critical parameter R 0 determines whether a disease will become epidemic or not. A proportional treatment protocol is the most effective at reducing ARF.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925352

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