Macroeconomic effects of a decade-long EU membership: evidence from Croatia

Mateo Ljubišić and Tomislav Globan

Post-Communist Economies, 2026, vol. 38, issue 3, 242-270

Abstract: This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of Croatia’s EU membership during its first decade. Using the synthetic control method, the study estimates synthetic values for key indicators, including GDP, aggregate demand components, gross value added, labour productivity, and gross national income, covering 1997–2023. By comparing actual and synthetic values, the analysis reveals significant positive impacts, particularly in exports, imports, investment, GVA in tertiary sector, and gross national income, with effects intensifying over time. Despite limitations from pre-accession macroeconomic imbalances, cumulative membership benefits are substantial. Robustness is confirmed through placebo tests in time and space. The study also highlights the deepening of EU integration, including Croatia’s entry into the Eurozone and Schengen Area, alongside increased EU funds, as key drivers of positive outcomes post-2020. These findings underscore the transformative role of EU membership and point to new research directions on the broader economic implications of Croatia’s integration milestones.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:38:y:2026:i:3:p:242-270

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DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2025.2595198

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