Creative destruction revisited: regional impacts of natural disasters beyond GDP

Stefano Clò, Lorenzo Ciulla, Federico Martellozzo, Alessio Gatto and Samuele Segoni

Regional Studies, 2025, vol. 59, issue 1, 2546973

Abstract: This research shows that the economic impact of the hydrogeological disasters critically depends on the quality of local institutions. Using Italian Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 3 data, we identify significant divergences across regions: after a disaster, high-quality institutions promote economic recovery, even stimulating gross domestic product (GDP) growth beyond pre-disaster levels. In contrast, regions with weak institutions experience structural economic decline. This divergence pertains to economic indicators exclusively. Socially, regardless of institutional quality, affected regions experience a deterioration in poverty levels, inequality and human development. These findings suggest that post-disaster policies prioritise economic over the mitigation of social vulnerability.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2025.2546973

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